ドイツ政府記念日: 危機モードの年 Sabine Kinkartz






Looking ahead, Scholz is demonstrating strength also in the international arena. "Germany intends to become the guarantor of European security that our allies expect us to be," he wrote this week. 




"The Habeck principle goes like this: camera-ready appearances, questionable technical implementation and in the end the citizen pays for it."

The Greens countered by saying "the poor performance of the chancellor, his lousy poll numbers" would "not be cured by disloyalty and resentment in the coalition."







German government marks anniversary: A year in crisis mode

Sabine Kinkartz 2022.12.08

The first year of Germany's coalition government of the Social Democrats, Greens and Free Democrats has been shaped by its response to Russia's war against Ukraine. How did they perform? DW has this analysis.



German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is at peace with himself. In his latest video podcast, he matter-of-factly and objectively outlined what his government has achieved in its first year in officeSupporting Ukraine against Russian aggression with humanitarian aid, money, and with weapons. Securing Germany's energy supply and laying the legal groundwork for expanding renewables. Providing financial relief for citizens facing sharp price rises, raising the minimum wage, and pushing through improved social benefits.

His message is: We have things under control, despite a cluster of existential crises, the likes of which no federal government has had to deal with before.

Olaf Scholz expresses satisfaction with the achievements of his "traffic light coalition" — named after the signature colors of the three parties: Scholz's center-left Social Democrats (SPD), the business-oriented Free Democrats (FDP), and the environmentalist Greens, whose respective party colors are red, yellow and green.

  ドイツのオラフ・ショルツ首相は、自分自身と平和です。彼の最新のビデオ ポッドキャストで、彼は政権発足 1 年目に政府が達成したことを感情を交えずにかつ客観的に概説しました。ドイツのエネルギー供給を確保し、再生可能エネルギーを拡大するための法的基盤を築く。急激な物価上昇に直面している市民に経済的救済を提供し、最低賃金を引き上げ、社会的利益の改善を推し進めます。
オラフ・ショルツは、ショルツの中道左派社会民主党 (SPD)、ビジネス指向の自由民主党 (FDP)、および環境保護主義者の緑の党の 3 つの政党の特徴的な色にちなんで名付けられた、彼の「信号機連合」の成果に満足を表明しています。それぞれのパーティーカラーは赤、黄、緑です。

A demonstratively upbeat new government took over on December 8,2021Image: Markus Schreiber/AP/picture alliance

Voters unsatisfied

Many citizens see things differently. For months, polls have shown that the coalition government would no longer have a majority in parliament if there were an election now. Dissatisfaction has grown. Only a minority believes the coalition is doing a good job.

 But political scientist Ursula Münch does not want to judge too harshly. "I would give the government the grade 'satisfactory,'" the director of the Akademie für Politische Bildung (Academy for Political Scholarship, Education, Public services) told DW. They faced many large and difficult challenges. Instead of simply working their way through their coalition agreement, they reacted flexibly and moved away from "many of their political beliefs," she said.


しかし、政治学者のウルスラ・ミュンヒは、あまり厳しく判断したくありません。「私は政府に「満足できる」等級を与えるだろう」とAcademie für Politische Bildung (政治奨学金、教育、公共サービスのためのアカデミー)のディレクターはDWに語った. 彼らは多くの大きく困難な課題に直面しました。単に連立協定を順守する代わりに、彼らは柔軟に対応し、「彼らの政治的信念の多く」から離れました.


The three-party alliance took office on December 8, 2021, calling itself the "Fortschrittskoalition" (progressive coalition). They promised to put all their efforts into modernizing the countryGermany was to become more climate-neutral, and more digitalized, women's and minority rights would be strengthened and bureaucracy would be streamlined. The projects necessary to achieve these goals were laid down point by point in the coalition agreement.

Only two and a half months later, everything changed. Russia invaded Ukraine and forced the world to a "Zeitenwende" (turning point), as the chancellor called it during a Bundestag speech. The immediate consequence: Scholz announced €100 billion ($105 billion) for Germany's armed forces, the Bundeswehr, as well as support for Ukraine.

三者同盟は2021年12月8日に発足し、自らを「Fortschrittskoalition」(進歩的連合)と呼んだ。彼らは国の近代化に全力を尽くすことを約束した。ドイツはより気候中立的になり、よりデジタル化され、女性とマイノリティの権利が強化され、官僚機構が合理化される. これらの目標を達成するために必要なプロジェクトは、連立協定のポイントごとに定められました。

わずか2か月半後、すべてが変わりました。ロシアはウクライナに侵攻し、連邦議会の演説で首相が呼んだように、世界を「ツァイテンヴェンデ」(転換点)に追い込んだ。直接的な影響: ショルツは、ドイツ軍、連邦軍、およびウクライナへの支援に 1,000 億ユーロ (1,050 億ドル) を発表しました。



Energy crisis and inflation

The decision to break the previous German state doctrine of not supplying weapons to conflict zones shook the SPD and the Greens to their core. They had to move away from their fundamental pacifist convictions. The Greens emerged as the strongest supporters of weapons deliveries to Ukraine. The SPD and Chancellor Scholz, on the other hand, have long been accused of being too hesitant.



Political scientist Ursula Münch sees it differently: "It was right to seek a balance between support for Ukraine and concerns about escalating the war." It is irksome, she says, that both Germany's European partners and the US are still unsure "which strategy the chancellor is actually pursuing."

In response to Germany's support for Ukraine, Russian gas supplies to Germany — which is highly dependent on themwere cut off to put pressure on the country. Energy prices skyrocketed, triggering the highest inflation in decades.

Since then, the dramatic consequences for the state, the economy, and citizens have steered the government's actions. Three relief packages worth a total of about €100 billion were launched. In addition, came a €200 million euro economic "defensive shield" with caps on gas, heating, and electricity prices. Not to forget funding for German companies who are affected by sanctions or the war, and the costs of accommodating and caring for about a million refugees from Ukraine, who Germany has now taken in.



それ以来、国家、経済、および市民に対する劇的な結果が政府の行動を導いてきました。総額約 1,000 億ユーロに相当する 3 つの救済パッケージが開始されました。さらに、ガス、暖房、電気の価格に上限を設けた 2 億ユーロの経済的「防御シールド」が導入されました。経済制裁や戦争の影響を受けたドイツ企業への資金提供や、現在ドイツが受け入れているウクライナからの約 100 万人の難民を収容し、世話をするための費用も忘れてはなりません。



Distrust within the coalition

In total, the coalition government has taken on about €500 billion in debt during its first year in office. Chancellor Scholz coined the term "double whammy" (Doppelwumms), to describe the cash injection, based on the singular "whammy" he used to announce the COVID-19 aid package in 2020 when he was finance minister. Scholz, who is not known for displays of emotion, relies on such linguistic gymnastics to convey the gravity of a situation.

 Because of the tense financial situation, many of the projects in the coalition agreement have had to be put on the back burner. Despite this, all three partners were able to achieve some of their goals: The SPD pushed through the "Bürgergeld" (literally "citizens' money") — a major reform of unemployment benefits, expanded basic social security and raised the minimum wage. "The Greens can point out that they are sticking to the phase-out of nuclear energy, but that is something that will be appreciated by their own supporters, not most of the population," says political scientist Münch.

 The FDP, however, has taken a dive in the polls and in regional elections. It is struggling to achieve its goal of restructuring public finances and curbing public debt. "The crisis means that a solid budget is a long way off, and the infrastructure projects will take years," Münch explains.

Münch feels "the government has quite often gotten itself bogged down disputes over principles." In the case of extending the lifeline of the country's remaining three nuclear power plants, this went so far that the chancellor had to intervene.

Looking ahead, Scholz is demonstrating strength also in the international arena. "Germany intends to become the guarantor of European security that our allies expect us to be," he wrote this week. 

  連立政権は、発足から最初の 1 年間で合計で約 5,000 億ユーロの負債を抱えています。ショルツ首相は、財務大臣だった 2020 年に COVID-19 支援パッケージを発表する際に使用した単数形の「ワーミー」に基づいて、現金注入を説明するために「ダブル ワーミー」(ドッペルウムス) という用語を作り出しました。感情を表に出すことで知られていないショルツは、状況の重大さを伝えるためにそのような言語の体操に頼っています。

緊迫した財政状況のため、連立協定のプロジェクトの多くは後回しにされなければなりませんでした。それにもかかわらず、3 つのパートナーはいずれも目標の一部を達成することができました。SPD は、「Bürgergeld」 (文字通り「市民のお金」) - 失業手当の大規模な改革、基本的な社会保障の拡大、最低賃金の引き上げを推し進めました。「緑の党は、原子力エネルギーの段階的廃止に固執していると指摘することができますが、それは国民の大部分ではなく、彼ら自身の支持者によって評価されるものです」と政治学者のミュンヒは言います.

しかし、FDP は世論調査と地方選挙で急落しました。財政の再構築と公的債務の抑制という目標の達成に苦戦している。「この危機は、堅実な予算が実現するにはほど遠いことを意味し、インフラ プロジェクトには何年もかかるでしょう」と Münch 氏は説明します。

ミュンヒは、「政府は原則をめぐる論争で行き詰まることがよくある」と感じている。残りの 3 つの原子力発電所ライフラインを延長する場合、これは首相が介入しなければならないほど行き過ぎた。





Infighting was something that the coalition partners wanted to avoid. But this does not work if a party feels like it is falling behind. Over the European summer, when the Greens were beating the SPD in the polls and Economy Minister Robert Habeck, of the Greens, had far higher approval ratings than the Scholz, SPD lawmakers took aim: "The Habeck principle goes like this: camera-ready appearances, questionable technical implementation and in the end the citizen pays for it."

The Greens countered by saying "the poor performance of the chancellor, his lousy poll numbers" would "not be cured by disloyalty and resentment in the coalition."

Looking ahead, the coalition needs to find other solutions than throwing money at problems, says political scientist Ursula Münch. For her, the caps and subsidies on gas and electricity prices are not a satisfactory solution. "Energy costs are being heavily and expensively subsidized, but at the same time little is being done to increase the supply of climate-friendly energy."

The energy shortages will remain. If gas reserves are emptied in spring, ways must be found to refill them by late autumna Herculean task without gas supplies from Russia.

Inflation is expected to remain high; the economy is facing a recession. The government could be facing even tougher challenges in its second year than it did in its first. The chancellor must hold his coalition together and stay the course. No easy tasks. Olaf Scholz will likely approach them the way he always has throughout his decades-long political career: unflinching, stoic, and sometimes a little stubborn.

  内紛は、連合のパートナーが避けたかったものでした。しかし、当事者が後れを取っていると感じている場合、これは機能しません。緑の党世論調査SPD を打ち負かし、緑の党のロバート・ハベック経済相がショルツよりもはるかに高い支持率を示したヨーロッパの夏の間、SPD の議員たちは狙いを定めました。カメラ映えする外観、技術的な実装に疑問があり、最終的に市民がその代償を払うことになる。


今後、連合は問題に資金を投入する以外の解決策を見つける必要がある、と政治学者の Ursula Münch は述べています。彼女にとって、ガスと電気料金の上限と補助金は満足のいく解決策ではありません。「エネルギーコストは多額の補助金で賄われていますが、同時に、気候に優しいエネルギーの供給を増やすために行われたことはほとんどありません。」


インフレは高いままであると予想されます。経済は不況に直面しています。政府は、発足から 2 年目に、1 年目よりもさらに厳しい課題に直面する可能性があります。首相は連合を維持し、コースを維持しなければなりません。簡単なタスクはありません。オラフ・ショルツは、何十年にもわたる政治家としてのキャリアを通じて常にそうしてきたように、冷静沈着でストイック、そしてちょっと頑固に、、、彼らにアプローチする可能性が高いでしょう。



This article was originally written in German.

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